Monday, January 28, 2008

4:10 pm : On Monday, the major indices closed with significant gains, at their best levels of the session. The advance was broad-based with nine of the ten sectors posting a gain in excess of 1%. Financials showed significant strength, leading a late-day surge.

It was shaping up to be another negative day on Wall Street. Asian markets closed sharply lower on fear of a U.S. economic slowdown, and an economic reading on new home sales disappointed. The stock market managed to rebound into positive territory, though, as traders upped their bets for a rate cut and embraced several better than expected earnings reports.

On the economic front, December new home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 604,000 which is 4.7% less than last month's reading and is 40.7% less than last year's number. Economists expected sales to come in at 647,000.

The median sales price of a new house in December was $219,200. This equates to a 10.9% price drop year-over-year, the largest decline in nearly four decades. At the current sales rate, there is a 9.6 month supply of new homes. In 2007, there were an estimated 774,000 new homes sold, down 26.4% from 2006.

The number of new home sales is very low, and the large supply of inventory should keep pressure on prices for some time. Homebuilders (+6.4%) shrugged off the negative report. The group is up 36.5% in the last five sessions.

Stocks fell to their session lows shortly after the release, but then recovered into positive territory as traders increased their bets on the size of a fed funds rate cut on Jan. 30.
Fed funds futures currently indicate an 88% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut, with a 25 basis point cut fully priced in. Prior to today's action, futures suggested a smaller 70% chance of a 50 basis point cut.

Of the 22 companies that reported earnings this morning, 12 beat expectations, three met, and seven missed. Some of the notable companies that topped estimates include Corning (GLW 23.10, +0.73), Halliburton (HAL 33.55, +0.46), McDonald's (MCD 51.07, -3.03) and Sysco (SYY 28.33, +0.72). McDonald's traded lower though, as traders were disappointed with its flat December U.S. same-store sales. Verizon (VZ 38.11, +0.35) met expectations.

All ten sectors advanced. The financial sector (+3.3%) posted the largest gains, as it stands to benefit from a lower fed funds rate. Beaten down telecoms (+2.6%) came in second. Tech (+0.4%) underperformed on a relative basis due to lack of leadership within the sector.DJ30 +176.72 NASDAQ +23.71 NQ100 +0.9% R2K +2.0% SP400 +2.3% SP500 +23.36 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1052/1929/1.90 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 749/2421/1.35 bln

3:30 pm : The stock market continues to give up ground. Tech (-0.5%) is leading the retreat, which sent the Nasdaq briefly into negative territory. Apple (AAPL 128.27, -1.74) is playing a large role in the tech sector's reversal, as it went from a leader to a laggard.

After the close, 29 companies will be reporting earnings including Dow component American Express (AXP 46.70, +1.26). President Bush will address the nation is his annual State of the Union address at 9:00 P.M. ET. It is being reported that the state of the economy and the proposed fiscal stimulus package will be focal points.

Before the open tomorrow, 55 companies are reporting their earnings. Notable companies include 3M (MMM 76.90, +1.39), Dow Chemical (DOW 36.97, +0.66) and Countrywide Financial (CFC 5.94, -0.08).DJ30 +79.66 NASDAQ +3.15 SP500 +11.96 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1159/1801/1.59 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 851/2306/1.12 bln

3:00 pm : Stocks retreat off their highs, but are still holding onto strong gains. The recent retreat was concentrated in the tech sector, which is now trading 0.1% lower.
Shares of Nymex Holdings (NMX 114.50, +7.34) are posting significant gains. CME Group (CME 619.81, -9.19) and Nymex confirmed rumors that they are in preliminary discussions regarding CME's potential acquisition of Nymex. The companies have agreed to a 30-day exclusive negotiating period.

In other acquisition news, shares of Alliance Data (ADS 42.10, -23.50) are sharply lower after the company indicated its acquisition by affiliates of The Blackstone Group may not happen. Blackstone had told Alliance that it does not anticipate the condition to close the merger related to obtaining approvals from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency will be satisfied.DJ30 +82.75 NASDAQ +10.32 SP500 +12.57 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1017/1927/1.44 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 766/2390/1.02 bln

2:25 pm : Stocks hit fresh intraday highs in recent trade. Support has been broad based, with eight of the ten sectors advancing more than 1%. Energy (+0.5%) and consumer staples (+0.9%) are the laggards. Financials (+2.1%) continue to pace this session's advance. In currency trading, the dollar is down 0.7% against the euro. Against a basket of leading world currencies, the dollar is down 0.57%. DJ30 +130.55 NASDAQ +19.93 SP500 +17.11 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1077/1834/1.28 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 886/2237/914 mln

2:00 pm : Stocks continue to post sold gains, as the major indices trade near their session highs.
Market breadth leans bullish. Advancers outpace decliners by 5-to-2 on the NYSE, and by 5-to-3 on the Nasdaq. Volume is on the heavy side, as it has been of late.

Gold closed the session up $16.00 to $926.70 per ounce, slightly lower than its new all-time intraday high of $929.80 that was reached in earlier trade.DJ30 +95.11 NASDAQ +15.93 SP500 +12.97 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1112/1773/1.18 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 888/2222/841 mln

1:30 pm : The S&P 500 and Dow climb to fresh session highs. The financial (+2.0%) and energy (+1.6%) sectors are lending support. Energy has extended its gains as crude oil (+0.2% to $90.91) recovers into positive territory. The Nasdaq is trailing, as tech (+0.5%) is a notable laggard.

72 of the 100 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index are posting a gain. Weakness in Microsoft (MSFT 32.57, -0.37), Google (GOOG 559.55, -6.85) and Yahoo! (YHOO 20.90, -1.04) are offsetting Apple's (AAPL 131.08, +1.10) advance.DJ30 +93.00 NASDAQ +14.13 SP500 +13.08 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1168/1714/1.07 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 984/2089/747 mln

1:00 pm : The major indices regain some ground, with notable strength in financials (+1.6%).
351 stocks in the S&P 500 have advanced this session. Bank of America (BAC 40.64, +1.16), Merck (MRK 49.11, +1.32) and General Electric (GE 34.35, +0.35) are pacing the advance. The main laggards are McDonald's (MCD 50.58, -3.52), Microsoft (MSFT 32.48, -0.46) and Google (GOOG 559.36, -7.04). Two stocks in the index hit new 52-week highs, and two stocks hit 52-week lowsDJ30 +71.78 NASDAQ +7.03 SP500 +10.41 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1277/1586/971 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 995/2054/679 mln

12:30 pm : The major indices are holding onto modest gains, but remain off their best levels. All ten sectors remain in positive territory.

Gold continues to climb higher, hitting a fresh all time high of $929.80 per ounce. Silver has hit multi-year highs, and is currently up 1.5% to $16.73 per ounce.DJ30 +46.34 NASDAQ +7.19 SP500 +7.46 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1245/1587/886 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1063/1976/624 mln

12:00 pm : After some choppy action in the early-going stocks are posting modest gains at midday. Several better than expected earnings reports and increased bets on a rate cut helped offset steep declines in Asian markets and worse than expected new home sales data.

Of the 22 companies that reported earnings this morning, 12 beat expectations, three met, and seven missed. Some of the notable companies that topped estimates include Corning (GLW 23.17, +0.80), Halliburton (HAL 33.51, +0.42), McDonald's (MCD 51.14, -2.96) and Sysco (SYY 27.97, +0.36). McDonald's is trading lower though, as traders were disappointed with its flat December U.S. same-store sales. Verizon (VZ 37.21, -0.55) met expectations.

On the economic front, December new home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 604,000 which is 4.7% less than last month's reading and is 40.7% less than last year's number. Economists expected sales to come in at 647,000.

The median sales price of a new house in December was $219,200. This equates to a 10.9% price drop year-over-year, the largest decline in nearly four decades. At the current sales rate, there is a 9.6 month supply of new homes. In 2007, there were an estimated 774,000 new homes sold, down 26.4% from 2006.

The number of sales is very low, and the large supply of inventory should keep pressure on prices for some time. Homebuilders (+1.3%) shrugged off the negative report.

Stocks fell to their session lows shortly after the release, but then recovered into positive territory as traders increase their bets on the size of a Fed Funds rate cut on Jan. 30. Fed funds futures currently indicate an 88% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut, with a 25 basis point cut full priced in. Prior to today's action, futures suggested a smaller 70% chance of a 50 basis point cut, with a 25 basis point cut fully priced in.

Sharp declines in Asian markets on concerns of a U.S. economic slowdown weighed on U.S. stocks in pre-market trading. European markets were also lower, but pared most of their losses as U.S. stocks advanced.

All sectors are higher this session. Financials lead the way with a 1.6% advance. Consumer discretionary is underperforming on a relative basis with a 0.3% gain.DJ30 +59.10 NASDAQ +10.79 SP500 +10.01 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1142/1656/767 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1001/1987/521 mln

11:30 am : The major indices continue to post modest gains. U.S. Senate Democrats have added a jobless benefits extension and senior citizen rebates to the stimulus bill, according to Dow Jones.

Gold hit an all-time high of $924.80 per ounce before easing a bit. Gold is currently up 1.2% to $921.30 per ounce.DJ30 +58.29 NASDAQ +9.91 SP500 +9.81 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1178/1578/650 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1004/1967/433 mln

11:00 am : Stocks climb to their best levels of the session in a broad-based move. All ten sectors are in positive territory.

Financials (+1.6%) is leading the rebound with all 19 of its industry groups in the green. Industrial REITs is posting a 2.3% gain and regional banks is up 1.8%.
Even the energy sector (+1.0%) has rebounded into the green, despite a 1.4% slide in crude oil prices.DJ30 +53.36 NASDAQ +6.68 SP500 +7.61 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1446/1271/508 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1476/1445/322 mln

10:30 am : Stocks recover after falling to fresh session lows on the weak new home sales data. Utilities are leading the recovery effort with a gain of 1.3%. Meanwhile, telecom (-0.5%) pares most of its losses.

With regard to the new home sales data, the December seasonally adjusted annual rate of 604,000 is 4.7% less than last month's reading and is 40.7% less than last year's number. The median sales price of a new house in December was $219,200. This equates to a 10.9% price drop year-over-year, the largest decline in nearly four decades. At the current sales rate, there is a 9.6 month supply of new homes. In 2007, there were an estimated 774,000 new homes sold, down 26.4% from 2006.

The number of sales is very low, and the large supply of inventory should keep pressure on prices for some time. Homebuilders are down 2.7% this session.DJ30 +6.91 NASDAQ -2.28 SP500 +2.60 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1632/1008/342 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1763/1100/205 mln

10:05 am : Just hitting the wires, the U.S. Dept. of Commerce said December new home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 604K. Economists were expecting sales to hold at 647K. November's reading was revised downward to 634K. Stocks had climbed back to the unchanged mark, but fell back into the red after the disappointing data.

Three of the ten sectors are trending higher. Utilities is leading the way with a 0.6% advance. Telecom is the main laggard with a 1.7% drop, as it continues its poor showing this year.DJ30 -74.87 NASDAQ -13.77 SP500 -6.56 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1624/790/120 mln

09:40 am : The stock market dips into the red after opening on a slightly higher note. Foreign markets saw another day of steep declined on fears of U.S. economic slowdown. Japan's Nikkei fell 4.0% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 4.3%. Goldman Sachs said in a report dated Jan. 25 that Japan is either already in a recession or is very likely to do so in the first quarter, according to SCMP.com.

Earnings news leaned bullish. McDonald's (MCD), Corning (GLW), Sysco (SYY) and Halliburton (HAL) topped earnings expectations. Verizon (VZ) came in-line with expectations. McDonald's is trading lower though, as investors were disappointed with its flat December U.S. same-store sales.DJ30 -53.57 NASDAQ -16.76 SP500 -4.97

09:13 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0.

08:59 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Stock futures shed a few points and suggest a slightly lower open. The Dec. new home sales report is set for release at 10:00 ET. Economists are expected a reading of 645K.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.5. S&P 500 futures are now pointing to a flat open as investors respond positively to this morning's earnings reports. McDonald’s (MCD) announced its dividends declared will now be paid on a quarterly basis. Nasdaq futures are pointing to a slightly lower open.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.0. Futures indicate a lower start for stock market after foreign markets fell sharply on concerns of U.S. economic slowdown. Japan closed down 4.0% and Hong Kong ended its session 4.4% lower. Earnings reports have lifted futures off their worst levels. Verizon (VZ) reported earnings in-line with expectations. Corning (GLW) topped earnings expectations by one cent and issued first quarter earnings guidance above the consensus estimate. McDonald’s (MCD) beat expectations by $0.02.

06:18 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.3.

06:18 am : FTSE...5761.40...-107.60...-1.8%. DAX...6709.27...-107.47...-1.6%.

06:18 am : Nikkei...13087.91...-541.25...-4.0%. Hang Seng...24053.61...-1068.76...-4.3%.

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